Despite the rising commodity prices and the geopolitical tensions, there are positive signs of growth in production and profits. However, concerns persist regarding foreign demand and domestic and European economic conditions.

PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT

At the end of 2023, paper and cardboard production in Italy reached approximately 7.5 million tonnes (recording a 14% decrease in volume compared to 2022), with a turnover dropped by 27%.

However, the outlook for the sector in the first quarter of 2024 indicates a slight improvement compared to previous quarters.

The reduction in production volumes in 2023 was mainly caused by weak demand for paper and cardboard.

For example, production of packaging paper and board decreased by 10.2%, although it remained close to pre-pandemic levels. The production of paper for hygienic-sanitary uses also decreased by 2.3%, while that for graphic uses and other specialties recorded more significant reductions, of 34.3% and 19.6% respectively.

Despite this, the average rate of use of paper for recycling increased to 67% compared to 62% in 2022, despite the decrease in paper consumption for recycling by 7%.

In the packaging sector, 85% of paper is recycled.

SIGNS OF OPTIMISM

The survey of the end of December on the prospects for the first quarter of 2024 shows an optimistic scenario, except for foreign demand.

Regarding domestic demand and orders, the percentage of pessimists in the sample is now 19.4% (compared to 30.6% at the end of September and 22.6% at the end of June), while the optimists are at 16 ,7%.

The situation is clearer for production, with 27.8% of those interviewed expecting an increase (compared to 5.6% and 3.2% in the two previous surveys), while only 8.3% expected an increase reduction (compared to 25% and 19.4% at the end of September and the end of June).

Also regarding turnover, a moderately positive balance was recorded, with 22.2% of the sample expecting an improvement (compared to 5.6% at the end of September and 3.2% at the end of June), while 19 .4% expect worsening (compared to 35.5% and 41.7% in previous surveys).

This is despite sharp increases in raw material prices. For example, as of January 2024, short fiber prices increased by 68% and long fiber prices by 61% compared to pre-increase levels.

While the cost of gas remains stable but high compared to competitors, especially outside the EU, the prices of CO2 quotas, subject to financial speculation, reach €61 per tonne in February 2024 (compared to €54 in 2021 and to €25 in the two-year period 2019-2020).

The picture remains critical as regards foreign demand. The concerns of paper mills focus on the complex national and European macroeconomic scenario and on inflation which, although slowing down, continues to influence the purchasing power of paper mill customers, whose finances are compromised by the difficulty in accessing credit for businesses.

The risks linked to geopolitical tensions, in particular the most recent crisis in the Red Sea which is influencing transport costs and times, could lead to an increase in the prices of energy raw materials, currently decreasing, with serious consequences on the activity of sectors with high energy intensity like the paper industry and on the already precarious competitiveness of its products.